When To Buy Insurance Blackjack
Insurance is a word that most people are familiar with. You buy insurance just in case you get in a car accident with an uninsured driver, just in case you die and just in case you break your arm after falling off your ladder while hanging Christmas lights. You pay a premium up front and if or when the inevitable happens, the insurance companies takes care of (most of) the cost.
- Should You Take Insurance Blackjack
- Blackjack Insurance Rule
- When To Buy Insurance In Blackjack
- Insurance Blackjack Meaning
- Blackjack Insurance Payout
With traditional insurance in mind, I think a lot of players confuse what insurance is as a side-bet in blackjack. Insurance (in blackjack) is not as good as it appears. My goal for this article is to explain exactly what blackjack insurance is, and why you should avoid it like the plague.
Insurance is a side-bet that dealers offer to players whenever they have an ace showing. The idea behind insurance is to protect your bet just in case the dealer has a blackjack.
Blackjack players are offered insurance whenever the dealer’s exposed card is an Ace. This is an optional proposition wager which is treated separately from your original bet. When you buy insurance, you are. This is blackjack insurance. Insurance is something someone can buy is the dealer’s up-card is an ace so that if the faced-down card will give the dealer blackjack you will only end up losing half of the pot.
How Does Insurance in Blackjack Work?
Should You Take Insurance Blackjack
When a dealer has an ace showing they’ll ask you if you want insurance. This is before they check for a (natural) 21. If you take the insurance you can wager as much as half of your original bet. For example, if your original bet was $10 you can pay as much as $5 for insurance.
Once the insurance bet has been placed the dealer will then check for a blackjack. If the dealer has a blackjack you’ll be paid 2-1 on your money (insurance bet). If you wagered $5 you’d receive $10. However, unless you have a blackjack, too, you will still lose your original bet, breaking even overall. If the dealer doesn’t have a blackjack, you’ll lose your insurance bet and will still have the opportunity to play your hand like normal.
Another insurance-like situation you may find yourself in is if you have a natural blackjack and the dealer has an ace showing. The dealer will offer you even money on your bet. In other words, if you bet the maximum of $5 insurance on a $10 bet and the dealer has a 21, you’ll push on the blackjack, but win 2-1 on your insurance. So you’d be up $10. However, if you take the insurance and the dealer doesn’t have a blackjack, you’ll lose your $5 bet and win 2-1 on your blackjack ($15) for a total of $10. Either way, you walk away with an even money win.
So… Should You Take Insurance or Even Money Side-Bets?
No. Experts recommend that you pass on insurance bets.
The reason why passing on insurance in blackjack is recommended is because the dealer will only show up with a blackjack 30.87% of the time. However, to breakeven on the insurance bet you need a 10-point card to show up 1 out of 3 times (33%). So every time you take this bet you’re taking a minor loss over the long run, assuming you max your insurance bet (half the original).
There are exceptions, of course. For example, if you’re a card counter than you would know how many 10-point cards are left in the deck. So if the deck is rich with 10-point cards it would make sense to take the insurance bet. If the deck is poor with 10-point cards you’d pass on insurance.
You could even make the argument that you don’t have to be a card counter. In fact, if you simply pay attention to the cards dealt and notice that there are more 10-point cards then you could pass on insurance, or vice versa. The difference here (from counting cards) is that you’re not as accurate, and would likely be making a breakeven play, or at best a slight win/loss.
At the end of the day, though, taking insurance is going to be a -EV bet for the majority of players. To give you a better idea of how insurance affects the house edge, just look at these numbers:
- 1 Deck – 5.88%
- 2 Decks – 6.8%
- 4 Decks – 7.25%
- 6 Decks – 7.4%
- 8 Decks – 7.47%
Not very appealing, right? So unless you know how to count cards you should avoid taking the insurance bet in blackjack like the plague. Unless you like losing, of course.
Michael Shackleford: Hi guys, this is Mike and the purpose of today's Wizard of Odds Academy lesson will be to explain why you should never take insurance in Blackjack. What insurance is, is a side bet that the dealer has a 10 point card in the hole.
It is offered when the dealer already has an ace up, so it wins in the event that the dealer gets a blackjack. The insurance bet can be made for up to half of the player's original bet and it pays two to one if it wins.
I'm going to…
…put a two for the pace if the dealer has a 10 point card in the hole and a negative one if the dealer has an ace and a nine which represents that the player lost his insurance bet.
Let's assume six packs of cards, shall we?
Assuming no other information other than the ace up the dealer already has, there are 96 winning cards for the insurance bet, 16 times 6 out of 311 left. There's 311 because a full six-deck shoe is 312 cards and we take one out because of the dealer's ace, and there are 215 cards that will cause the insurance bet to lose.
Let's take the product of the win and the probability.
2 times 96 over 311 is 61.74% and 215 divided by 311 times -1 is -69.13%. In other words, the player can expect to win 61.74% of his bet and lose 69.13% of his bet. We take the sum which is -7.40%. That means that for every dollar the player bets on insurance, he can expect to lose 7.4 cents or 7.4% of whatever his insurance bet is.
7.4% is a pretty high house advantage and consequently, I recommend that you say no to insurance every time. Before someone says in the comments, 'Mike, what if the count is good? What if I'm counting cards?'
Yes. Then, of course, there are exceptions. If you've been counting cards and you know that the remaining cards are very 10 rich, but for the recreational player that's not counting, insurance is a terrible bet and, again, I recommend you decline it every time.
'What about even money?'
You might be asking me. Well, let me explain to you first of all, that the even money offer is the same thing as taking insurance. It's only offered when the player already has a blackjack and the dealer has an ace up.
Let's look…
Blackjack Insurance Rule
…at what would happen both ways if the player has a blackjack and takes insurance. If the dealer ends up getting that blackjack, the main bet will push, so it wins nothing, but the insurance but will win one unit because the player bets half a unit on insurance. The insurance but pays two to one on the winning blackjack. One-half times two equals one.
Next…
If the dealer does not get that blackjack, the player's main wager will pay one and a half but he will lose half a unit on the insurance. The combined when between the main wager and the insurance wager is one unit when the dealer does get a blackjack and one unit when the dealer does not get a blackjack.
It doesn't make any difference whether or not the dealer gets a blackjack. If the player has a blackjack and takes insurance, he wins one unit either way and what the dealer is essentially saying is, 'Look, if you take insurance, you're going to win one to one regardless if I have a blackjack. I may as well just pay you now before I even check what I have.”
It sounds attractive but let's do some math and see if you should take it. Let's evaluate the situation where the player has a blackjack, the dealer has an ace up and the player declines insurance. If the dealer has a 10 in the hole, then the player will win nothing because it will be a blackjack against blackjack tie, in other words, a push. If the dealer has anything else in the hole, the player will win his full three to two on his wager or 1.5.
Let's assume:
knowledge of no other cards in the shoe other than what's already on the table. There are 309 cards left out of the 312 card shoe, less than three cards already involved, the player's ace and 10 and the dealers ace.
The probability that the dealer has a 10 in the hole is 95 divided by 309. Like I just said, there's 309 cards left, the shoe started with 96 tens but the player has one of them. The chances that the dealer has an ace to 9 in the hole is 214 divided by 309.
Let's examine what the player can get back either way:
When To Buy Insurance In Blackjack
If the dealer does have that 10 in the hole, the player can expect to get back nothing because the probability of zero times anything is zero. If the dealer does not have a 10 in the hole, the player can expect to get back 1.5 with a probability of 214 divided by 309. The product of those two numbers is 103.88%. If we add them up, it's obvious you still get that same 103.88%.
What this means is…
…if the player has a blackjack, the dealer has an ace up, the player can expect to win 1.0388 times his bet or about 104% of whatever he bet. The decision to whether or not to take even money is the decision; do you want to get back an average of 103.88% of your bet or just 100%?What's more? 100% or 103.88%? Well, 103.88% is more, therefore, if you're seeking the greater expected value, which you should be in any casino game, you should decline even money and go for that 103.88%.
Few caveats here:
Number one - again this is assuming the player is not counting cards, just a recreational player. Number two - this is assuming that a blackjack pays three to two.
Finally, this question has come up on my forum every once in a while and a lot of people use the argument that yes, I make a good mathematical argument for declining an insurance even money but what about the psychological argument?
If you’re in this situation with a blackjack against the dealer ace, some people will say you have a 100% chance of being happy by taking the even money, locking in a sure win but only a 69.26% chance of being happy by declining the even money.
Those figures are right but…
…in the casino as well as real life, you should be long-term minded. You should be thinking what is the expected average gain for any decision that you make? Do not always play conservatively and lock in the small win when the average win by taking a chance is greater.
Of course, there are exceptions for life-changing situations but if you’re playing Blackjack, it assumes that you like gambling, to begin with. You’re in the casino you’re gambling, gamble on winning that full one and half, don’t settle on the measly one unit. Furthermore, even if you do use this argument of I want a 100% chance of being happy right now, I’ll take the even money. That happiness is only going to last less than a minute until the next hand.
Insurance Blackjack Meaning
I think…
…you should be thinking what is going to be your happiness when you finally walk away from the table and you go home for your trip? The more money you win or the less money you lose from that sitting and the whole trip, the happier you’re going to be.
Blackjack Insurance Payout
Furthermore, you’re going to get more, shall we say, action by taking that chance on winning with your blackjack. Like I said you’re gambling, to begin with, so gamble!
I can’t think of anything else to say on this topic. I hope that I’ve convinced you to always say no to insurance and even money.
Thanks, guys for listening and I’ll see you in the next video.
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