Bookies Close Winning Accounts

admin
Bookies Close Winning Accounts Rating: 4,6/5 4311 votes

Punters and anti-gambling advocates have hit out at betting agencies for restricting or shutting down the accounts of people who win too often. Dugher, a former Labour MP, wrote on Twitter: 'Betting shops must close, rightly, because they are 'leisure' businesses, like clubs etc. Yet HMT HM Treasury tell us that unlike all the other businesses on the list of those who must close, betting shops, casinos.

The principle of value betting is not to bet when you think you will win, but when the probability of you winning is greater than that implied by the bookmaker’s odds. To be a profitable bettor means that your judgement is better than your bookmaker’s. In this article, Joseph Buchdahl explains how sportsbooks manage the odds and shows how beating the bookies works. Read on to find out.

In 2014 Pinnacle tested the Wisdom of the Crowd hypothesis by inviting people to guess the number of chocolate balls in a video. By the end of the test, the average guess was just 1.4% higher than the actual figure, despite only 1 person out of the 608 entries guessing correctly.

[Although] the results of sporting events cannot be known a priori, yet even under these conditions the crowd does generally provide an accurate assessment of the respective probabilities of the outcomes.

Of course, sporting outcomes are binary by nature: they either happen or they don’t. However, it is the flow of money via which the opinions of bettors are expressed that is used by bookmakers to judge the respective outcome probabilities, by means of the odds. It is true that herds are prone to expressing systematic biased judgement when faced with uncertainty, leading to a collectively less wise opinion.

However, typically we find that the more liquid (or popular) the betting market, the better the collective wisdom. The greater the number of independently acting players expressing a range of diverse views about a sporting event there are, the more likely it is that a crowd will be wise and the betting odds accurate.

The wisdom of Pinnacle bettors

Bookies close winning accounts at a

I have previously examined just how accurate Pinnacle’s 1X2 soccer match betting odds are, and by extension how wise their market is, by means of comparing expected outcome probabilities (defined by the odds) to actual outcome percentages. This analysis demonstrated that Pinnacle’s betting odds, on average, are highly efficient - that is to say, accurate.

The greater the number of independently acting players expressing a range of diverse views about a sporting event there are, the more likely it is that a crowd will be wise and the betting odds accurate.

For example, teams fairly priced at 2.00 (i.e. once Pinnacle’s margin has been removed) typically win about 50% of the time. Teams priced at 4.00 win 25% of the time, and so on. Whilst such an observation is not conclusive proof of market efficiency, it is consistent with it.

Of course, not all bookmakers offer the same price for a team. For example, Pinnacle offered a price of 2.22 for Liverpool to beat Tottenham in their game played 11th February 2017. This varied between 2.15 and 2.33 with other bookmakers. How do we know which price was more accurate?

Testing Pinnacle’s wisdom against other bookmakers

One way we could test relative price efficiency of Pinnacle versus other bookmakers is to formulate the following hypothesis and accompanying test:

Winning

1)Assume Pinnacle’s odds (with their margin removed) provide an exact measure of the true outcome probabilities.

2)Consequently, the ratio of another bookmaker’s odds to Pinnacle’s odds provides a measure of expected value or expected return.

3)Analyse actual returns across a range of expected values.

For example, with the margin removed, Pinnacle’s estimated fair price for Liverpool to beat Tottenham was about 2.25, implying roughly a 44% outcome probability. Consequently, if our hypothesis is correct, the best market price of 2.33 would offer an expected return of about 1.035 or profit of +3.5% (2.33/2.25).

On the other hand, betting at the market low of 2.15 would entail an expected return of 0.956 or loss of -4.4% (2.15/2.25). If we then find that all bets with an expected profit of +3.5% (or loss of -4.4%) collectively return a profit of 3.5% (or loss of 4.4%), we would conclude that our hypothesis is correct, that is to say Pinnacle’s odds, on average, are efficient, accurate or wise.

So, how wise is Pinnacle’s soccer match betting markets? I’ve analysed a sample of 35,570 league matches played throughout Europe since the start of the 2012/13 season, yielding 106,710 possible outcomes from the home/draw/away market.

Do Bookies Close Winning Accounts

For each, the expected value (or return) is calculated by the ratio of the odds from one of four leading bookmakers to that of Pinnacle’s price with their margin removed, yielding 426,840 expected returns. Actual returns are then calculated for 0.01 intervals in expected return (for example 0.98, 0.99, 1.00, 1.01 etc) before a 5-point running average is used to smooth the variance in the data. Data is plotted in a scatter graph below, with very low and very high-expected returns removed for which there are understandably far fewer contributing data points.
The correlation between expected and observed returns is very strong and essentially 1:1. That is to say, when the expected return over a sample of matches is 90%, we actually return about 90% (or a loss of 10%). When the expected return is 105%, we actually return about 105% (or a profit of 5%)

Market folly or manipulation

Let’s now reverse the process. This time, let’s assume that our other bookmakers’ odds (with their margins removed) provide an accurate measure of true outcome probabilities. How do actual returns, this time betting Pinnacle’s odds, compare to those expected by the hypothesis? Take a look.

Now, correlation between expected and actual returns is completely absent. If a fair price is 2.00, whether Pinnacle offers 1.8 or 2.1 makes no difference: we lose about 2% regardless (which is roughly the size of Pinnacle’s soccer match betting market margin). The implication is that the odds from the four other bookmakers used in this analysis do not, on average, provide any meaningful measure of the true outcome probabilities relative to Pinnacle’s. It’s Pinnacle’s price, which provides the accurate measure.

What pricing model does your bookmaker use?

Presumably, there are two possible explanations for such a finding. Perhaps other bookmakers don’t know how to set prices properly. Evidently, that is not a credible conclusion, given the longevity of success of these bookmakers. Alternatively, we could speculate that bookmakers are intentionally shifting prices away from market efficiency in favour of pursuing interests of their business models.

Bookies Close Winning Accounts Meaning

Pinnacle’s pricing model utilises crowd wisdom and accepts sharp players to tighten them. Other bookmakers from Europe and the UK prefer to encourage a steady flow of squares via promotional offers, a wider variety of low-liquidity markets and the regular availability of best market prices (if not the lowest margins). With respect to the last of those, a casual perusal of any odds comparison will reveal numerous matches where bookmakers are significantly out of line with Pinnacle’s market, and in the extreme offer loss-leading value to the player.

In my analysis sample, such positive expectation was available in 4.1% of the betting propositions. Naturally, this would account for why so many of these alternative brands, in contrast to Pinnacle, rely on account closures to mitigate the threat of players taking systematic advantage of these loss-leading prices either through value betting or arbitrage. It will also come as no surprise to learn that whilst Pinnacle openly accepts arbitrage players, other brands do not, and that typically the bookmaker on the negative expectation side of the arbitrage, from the perspective of the punter, is Pinnacle.

This is not to say Pinnacle’s betting market is perfectly efficient; just that inefficiencies are harder to find and exploit. However, those sharp enough to find them can do so safe in the knowledge that their custom will always be welcome. It helps, indeed, to build the wise betting market that sets Pinnacle apart from its competitors.

  • in Betting by Amy

A common complaint from successful punters is that bookmakers close or limit their accounts.
You spend all your time perfecting your betting skills, and then you’re barred for using them. Is it really worth the effort?!
The answer, I'm sure you’ll be pleased to hear, is a resounding YES! There is no good reason why you should get your accounts closed or limited by the bookies if you follow these simple rules.

Betting very precise amounts (e.g. £46.56) will mark you out very quickly as an arber or a matched bettor and most bookies don’t like those people!
This is because they really want to attract so-called 'mug punters' who are happy to take random punts in a spontaneous way and who traditionally lose money hand over fist.
In contrast, arbing and matched betting suggests you are aiming to milk the bookies in a systematic way. And frankly they could do without the aggravation, as life is too short and these days their margins are paper-thin.
If you’re arbing, use calculation software that works out rounded stakes or use a system like SkewTrader Pro, which is designed to work with round stakes.
Only bet pounds not pence, and stick to sums ending with a '0' or a '5'.

2. Use the Basic 'Fake-a-Loss' Technique

It may seem like stating the obvious, but bookies don't like winners.
You therefore have to think about how to fake losses effectively, with the classic way of doing so being to (a) back an event at the bookies (e.g. Lucky Ned to win), (b) lay the same event off at Betfair (Lucky Ned not to win), then (c) hope that the event doesn’t happen (e.g. Lucky Ned falls at the first).
This approach can often work but may prove expensive or back-fire entirely and get you shut down. In particular, things can go wrong if you're tempted to back-and-lay longshots to 'make sure' you lose, as longshots are often only available at much longer prices on Betfair than they are at your bookmakers.
So if you back Lucky Ned at 30, you might be offered lay odds on Betfair of 40 or 50. Such an arb could cost you up to £400 on a £20 stake if the Law of Sod kicks in, and Lucky Ned comes home in front.
This, in my opinion, is way too much stress for the pleasure of making your bookie twenty quid richer. With the punchline being that, if your longshot wins, your bookie will probably close down your account anyway.
This will follow as night follows day, if you’ve been taking money off him prior to the race. He’ll now figure you’ve moved on to successfully backing rank outsiders and are therefore not worth the trouble.
There is also the additional cost of Betfair commission to factor into your lay bet, so you may end up locking in a loss no matter what. Arbs that are guaranteed to lose, and in some cases lose you a lot, are an unnecessary price to pay for making your bookie smile; so my advice is to use this approach with caution.
So instead, here is a more sophisticated way to manage your bookmaker accounts...

Keep records of where you are with each bookie.
I keep records of bookie balances in my bookmaker passwords file (it’s only 1 row per bookie so it’s really not onerous), and then I track whether I am up or down this week with each of them.
This should be easy if you’ve been recording all your bets (which you have been doing, right?).
Obviously, if you’ve lost money at a given bookies this week, no further action is required, but if you’re up, review your progress over the last month and quarter. If I am ahead across all three periods, I will take action (see below).
But if I’m only ahead at a given bookies over any one or two of these periods, I will usually decide to ‘rest’ him, and switch to the accounts I’m losing money with. There is usually no need to fake losses if you’re managing your bookmaker accounts carefully.
When arbing there are always some accounts that, by chance, end up ahead, with others falling behind. The obvious long-term goal is to take your profits in Betfair, but you can give the natural cycling of bookie balances a helping hand simply by leaving successful accounts alone for a bit.
In my experience, this actually only means resting two or three accounts at a time when I’m arbing (as of course bookie odds are designed to help the bookie profit over time, via the over-round, so usually the majority of accounts end up overdrawn).

But what do you do if you are still ahead at a particular bookie over the last week, month and quarter? Well, after kicking yourself for not resting the account earlier, try this...

4. Back-and-Lay Short-Priced Selections Until You Lose Enough Money

This approach may sound counter-intuitive (as you will worry that favourites will win), but it is actually a sure-fire way of making losses on your bookmaker account.
After all, the bookies make the bulk of their profits by laying favourites, so it shouldn't be hard to lose to them by blindly backing anything in the required range.
Plus, if you’re backing favourites or second favourites, you are going to look like the mug punter they so want you to be. And if your short-priced punt does come home in front, you’re likely to win such small amounts (relative to your stake) that your bookie is likely to let matters run, sure in the knowledge that your mug punter behaviour will soon find you out.
Now I know what you are thinking – haven’t we, in step 2, questioned the value of backing-and-laying on account of (a) the odds disparities between the bookies and Betfair, and (b) the Betfair commission issue?
Well yes, but Betfair rarely offers long lay prices on favourites. All you do is use a site like Oddschecker, combined with a separate Betfair window, and find back-and-lay options where the lay odds at Betfair are equal to the backing odds at the bookies. Then lay your horse/team/whatever at Betfair for the same (or lower) odds as those on offer at the bookmakers, for a sum equal to the backing stake.
If your selection wins, you will finish level, or possibly even ahead if you got better odds at the bookies. And if it loses, you will be down by the amount of your Betfair commission: typically £2.50 on a £50 stake, which is, I feel, a price worth paying to put the smile back on a long-suffering bookmaker’s face!
That said, if you follow the guidance in my FREE 'How to Make £1,000 per Month from Betting' eBook, you should even be able to make money from your short-priced arbs. Which in turn makes the whole thing that little bit more pleasurable!

5. Avoid Moving Money in and out of Your Accounts as Much as Possible

I can't stress this enough. Bookies incur quite significant banking costs (that thankfully they don’t usually pass on to you) if you use bank cards.
If they are already having doubts about your account, there is nothing quite like a whole pile of bank fees to tip them over the edge.
Just because you don’t see this cost doesn’t mean it doesn’t matter to them. Remember – bookies' margins are wafer-thin, so naturally they are tracking this stuff.
A really good way of getting accounts limited is to open an email about a reload offer, make a debit card deposit, milk the offer, then withdraw all your money again. Please don't do this! Instead, focus on the long game.

This follows from point 5. Save your bookie bank charges and he will smile on you. Moreover, he will let you make much quicker withdrawals, so your bankroll can be turned over more quickly.
Everybody's happy!

7. Use Arb-Friendly Bookies

No article on this subject would be complete without a plug for Pinnacle. This bookie is a punter's dream. They offer great odds, openly welcome arbers, and, as far as I’m aware, have never closed down a soul.
The only reason you've probably never heard of them is that they don't waste money on marketing (or, by the look of it, on web design!) and famously don't bother with expensive sign-up offers.
They genuinely are in a class of their own and should be on your radar.

Note: Pinnacle is not currently available to UK punters, but in 2017 they announced that they hope to return soon. We're still waiting!

Bookies Close Winning Accounts For A

8. Use a System that Allows You to Bet at Modest Stakes

Bookmakers Close Winning Accounts

Arbing is all very well but if you are placing £200 bets on League Two football matches in order to drive out £2.70 worth of profit, it won’t be that long before your bookie limits you.
It would be better to place four arbs of £50 across a whole range of bookies, so the risk of unwanted attention is reduced.
I developed SkewTrader Pro effectively to 'widen the gap' between the back and lay sides of the arb, thereby allowing you to make enhanced profits at lower stakes. It comes with plenty of strategy options to help you get more value from modest trades.

Do Bookmakers Close Winning Accounts

Spread your bets around, using the techniques in my FREE 'How to Make £1,000 per Month from Betting' eBook and open lots of bookie accounts (OddsMonkey is the perfect way to do it).
After that, adopt an organised approach to bookmaker management.
Having an account closed can happen to any of us (sometimes the bookies simply do random things!) but it usually isn't inevitable. You simply need to plan ahead to minimise the chance of it happening.